Sunday, February 3, 2013
Super Bowl Betting
Betting on the Super Bowl is a lot like asking the hottest girl at high school out to the senior prom. There's a lot of risk but a lot of reward. One can minimize their risk by weighing the variables - I she expecting you to ask her out? Would you make a good couple? Does she even know you exist??? If the answer to all those is "no" then your risk is high and you should probably take your money off the table. BUT if your a smooth cat with game and she just got dumped by her douchebag boyfriend two days before the dance, then your odds suddenly just went up ten fold. The same risk/reward factors apply to this Sundays Super Bowl between the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers.
Though the books aren't closed, it's appearing that the point spread for the game will be 49ers at -4. So, for you rookies out there, this means that the 49ers are favored to win by 4 points. This seems right but as history tells us, anything can happen in the Super Bowl as the Giants have shaken up the sports books 2 of the past 3 years with their two upsets over the Patriots. Remember, this is the Super Bowl so technically, it's two best teams squaring off which means the games will be close and upsets tend to happen.
In my eyes, the 49ers have the edge. They have a top 5 defense and have looked pretty comfortable steamrolling teams in route to the big dance. The Ravens are hot and seem to be buying in the Ray Lewis retirement party but I think Colin Kaepernick is too quick and lethal for the aging Ravens defense to stop. It will be close but the our money is on the 49ers.
Matty A's betting tip of the day:
Bet $85 to win $50 on the 49ers on the money line; also bet $82.50 to win $75 on the Ravens at +4. It’s impossible to lose both bets, yet you can win both. For instance:
If San Francisco wins by 5 or more, you win $50 on the 49ers money-line bet, but lose $82.50 on the Ravens. Net loss of $32.50.
If Baltimore wins outright, you lose $87.50 on the 49ers money line, but win $75 on the Ravens with the point spread. Net loss $12.50.
But if the 49ers win by a field goal or less, you cash both tickets. Profit $125.
And if the 49ers win by exactly 4, you push on the Ravens and claim your $50 winning on the money line bet. Net profit of $50.
Worst case scenario, you lose $32.50 which is a only a few rounds of shots on a Friday night at your local watering hole BUT you can also put yourself in a position to win $125. So remember, you can dump $20 into that random "squares" game in order to watch a five year old girl predict the score at half time or you can use our bone fide, sure proof, back by advanced calculus strategy to win some real cheddar.
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